Renewable Energy Transition and Energy Security in Nigeria
Keywords:
Renewable Energy, Energy Security, Nigeria, ARDL Model, TransitionAbstract
This study examines the impact of the renewable energy transition on electricity access in Nigeria from 1990 to 2025. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, it analyses the relationship between electricity access, renewable energy use, GDP per capita, inflation, and population growth. The results confirm a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. In the long run, renewable energy use, population growth, and inflation exert a negative and significant effect on electricity access, while GDP per capita has a positive and significant effect. Specifically, a 1% increase in electricity from renewable sources reduces electricity access by 0.32%. The error correction term indicates that about 70% of short-run deviations from equilibrium are corrected within one year. Diagnostic and stability tests validate the robustness and stability of the estimated model. The findings suggest that expanding electricity access requires more than increasing renewable energy capacity. Policy efforts should also focus on raising household incomes, controlling inflation, and managing population pressures to ensure that renewable energy investments translate into improved access. Recommendations include trade openness in the renewable energy market, economic diversification, and managing population growth and inflation rates to improve energy access.
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